Time flies in Formula One, and very soon the annual winter
hibernation period will give way to a wave of car launches, press
released and of course, all important pre-season testing. This
annual ritual is the first opportunity the teams receive to assess
their new challenger: what's right, what's wrong and where they
stand. For diehard Formula One fans, it poses a first glimpse of
the season ahead and a clue as to the formbook when the circus
turns up in Melbourne Park. But how reliable are testing times?
Describing the winter period as "hibernation" is of course
totally inaccurate. Throughout the winter, thousands of people put
in very long hours to produce twelve competitive Formula One cars
in time for the first test in Spain. With the break between the end
of the previous season and first laps of testing now a little over
two months, teams can't afford to sit back - and increasingly, some
leading runners (such as Mercedes) are choosing to wait until the
second event to unveil their new machines. But rest assured, no
team will leave the garage on February 7th without updates. Whether
bringing old cars or new, each will be running parts intended to
steal a march on rivals come the middle of March. By the final
test, some order should begin to emerge.
Last year for example, those at the testing venues informed us
that Red Bull's new RB7 was quick. Very quick. And as it turned
out, they were right, with Adrian Newey's latest creation
dominating the season in the hands of Sebastian Vettel and sealing
both titles with some rounds to spare. But we were also told that
Ferrari appeared to have built a racing car capable of challenging,
and beating, Red Bull's offering. Team figures spoke confidently,
and various press personalities reported that Fernando Alonso had a
title winner on his hands. But in Australia, the Scuderia had
retreated behind Vitaly Petrov' Renault. Meanwhile, McLaren, which
had endured yet another wretched pre-season in which they struggled
for pace and handling, turned up with a vastly improved package
which was potent enough to challenge for victory in Hamilton's
hands.
That's where it gets confusing. Teams which are doing well may
genuinely be quick - or they may be running light to attract
headlines and sponsorship. By contrast, teams doing badly may be in
trouble - or perhaps choosing to hide their pace until it matters.
Or we may just not be seeing the finished article, and the car that
turns up at the season opener could be a transformed beast, as was
the case with McLaren. Testing in such a fast moving and secretive
world is so often smoke and mirrors coupled with constant
progress.
So in essence then, testing is useless? Well, not totally. An
indicator of its unreliability is when last year's hotly tipped
Williams FW33 took to the track in pre-season testing. The car
featured an extremely tightly sculpted rear end, a by-product of a
revolutionary gearbox which at first seemed to be setting times
consistent with the frontrunners. Speculators whispered that
Williams were back. But then the real action began, and they were
left to rue their worst season ever. Testing form simply didn't
translate. But then there's the Red Bull story: they emerged as
world beaters in testing, despite what looked to be a mere
evolution of the previous year's car, and stayed there all year. So
whilst the well trained eye can just about decipher a rough pecking
order from the February running, the constant change and trickery
mean that the pre-season is by no means all it appears to be.
This year, the main three competitors - that is Red Bull,
McLaren and Ferrari - will all turn up to the first test on 7th
February with brand new cars that they hope will challenge for the
title. There may be some clues here and there if you know where to
look, but for the casual observer it is best to be sceptical. The
only time we will truly know what to expect is when it's all
over.